Goldwind Technology (002202) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Gross Margin Turning Point Has Now Turned into Volume and Price Cycle

Goldwind Technology (002202) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Gross Margin Turning Point Has Now Turned into Volume and Price Cycle
Matters: On October 25, the company released three quarterly reports, reporting that the two companies realized operating income of 247.350,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.84%; net profit attributable to mother 15 was achieved.91 ‰, 34 from the previous decade.24%, corresponding to EPS.37 yuan / share; net profit after deduction is 14.29 ppm, 37-year average.91%; company performance is in line with expectations. Comment: 5245MW fan radiator, large-scale trend is clear.In the first three quarters, the company achieved energy saving of 5245MW, an increase of about 50% in one year.Spin-off viewing: 2398 platform launched 3398MW, accounting for 64.8%, intermediate level 3 reported.9 units; 2.The 5S platform launched 1,156MW, accounting for 22%, which was an increase of 1 quarter-on-quarter.3 in one; 3S platform is rated at 506MW, accounting for 9.7%, an increase of 2 quarter-on-quarter.1 single; 6S platform achieves a scale of 123MW, accounting for 2.4%, an increase of 1 unit from the interim report.In terms of hand orders, 2,5S batch orders have a capacity of 9.7GW, accounting for 42%, an increase of 20 percentage points, becoming the most important platform segment; 3S order quantity 5.8GW, accounting for 26%, and 18 units are upgraded each year. As wind power has gradually entered the parity stage, onshore wind turbines have gradually moved from 2S platforms to 2.5S and 3S platforms are excessive, the trend of large-scale is clear, and manufacturing and power generation costs will be significantly reduced. Orders in hand hit new highs, and bidding volumes continued to rise.As of the end of the third quarter, the company’s external orders on hand were 23513MW, an increase of 25 each year.1%.Judging from the amount of bids, the total bids for domestic fans in the first three quarters49.9GW, an increase of 109% per year; of which 17 were tendered in the third quarter.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 144%, an increase of 0 from Q2.2GW, continued to maintain a high level.Looking at the bidding price, since the price of wind turbines bottomed in August 2018, the bidding price of wind turbines has continued to rise, and 2MW has increased from a low of 3196 yuan / kW in August last year to 3536 yuan / kW in June, an increase of 10.64%.2.5MW increased from the lowest point of 3330 yuan / kW in August last year to 3898 yuan / kW in September, an increase of 17.06%.3MW units increased from 3,603 yuan / kW in June this year to 3,900 yuan / kW in September, an increase of 8.twenty four%.It is expected that the bidding price of wind turbines will continue to pick up gradually, and the company’s execution of orders next year will enter a stage of rising volume and price. It is stable in the wind field and the structure is continuously optimized.At the end of the third quarter, the company ‘s self-operated wind farm’s equity installed capacity gradually connected to the grid was 4596MW, which was basically stable from the previous quarter.Among them, 34% are located in the northwest region, which decreases by 4 percentage points every year; 34% are located in the north China region; 21% are located in the east and south regions.The company continues to optimize the distribution of wind farm resources through the sale and supplementary layout.The company’s domestic equity capacity under construction is 1390MW; international capacity under construction is 1,224MW; both domestic and international wind farms are in an accelerated deployment period.In terms of power generation, the company’s self-operated wind farm’s standard operating hours for parity in the first three quarters were 1,645 hours, which was 126 hours (+7) higher 南宁桑拿 than the industry average.66%).Achieve power generation 59.2.3 billion kWh, an increase of 2% per year. It is expected that through the accelerated development of the company’s wind farm, the company’s power generation profits will continue to grow. Upgrade the company’s rating to “Strong Push”.The inflection point for the gross profit margin of the wind turbine business already exists. Against the background of rush installation, we expect the company’s wind turbine business to usher in an upward trend next year, with both volume and price rising.We raise the company’s net profit forecast for the mother to 2019-2021 to 27.95 ppm / 45.4.2 billion / 55.5.3 billion (original value of 33.45 billion / 44.3.8 billion / 58.6.1 billion), the corresponding EPS is 0.66 yuan / 1.07 yuan / 1.31 yuan, taking into account the estimated level of 20 times the manufacturing end and the company’s power generation business, we give the company 16 times the estimate in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 17.12 yuan / share, raised to “strong push” level. Risk warning: The installed demand is lower than expected, and the gross profit margin is lower than expected.